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So, where is the upset in MLS playoffs?

They all want to be at Qwest on Nov. 22. Where is the playoff upset as the MLS post-season begins tonight?

They all want to be at Qwest on Nov. 22. Where is the playoff upset as the MLS post-season begins tonight?

I’ve already weighed in a bit on the playoffs in this ESPN.com Soccernet piece. And colleague Jeff Carlisle had two insightful breakdowns here and here. Meanwhile, MLSnet ace Kyle McCarthy broke down the East in this crackerjack piece. So, what’s left?

I’ll tell you what – bold predictions. And I’m feeling bold. I am one turbulent vortex of boldness – and I don't even know what that means!

Anyway, here we go.

In the marquee series, L.A. Galaxy-Chivas USA, I just don’t see the upset here. Chivas wins games by playing things safer than a suburban kid on his first trip to dangerous downtown. They win by letting the other kids make the mistakes. Well, the L.A. Bruce Arenas don’t make ‘em. Outside of two excellent goalkeepers, who cancel each other out, Landon Donovan and David Beckham are the only difference makers in the series. (No, Sasha Kljestan doesn’t count – not the way he’s played this year.) The Galaxy will move on.

Star-divide

In the Chicago-New England series, which will set back soccer by 9.6 years (I’ve carefully run the calculations), Chicago will get past the Revs. Why? Because it seems as though Chicago always beats the Revolution, almost as if by royal decree. Plus, the Fire is about to get two of its terrific defenders back in Wilman Conde and Gonzalo Segares. Meanwhile, the Revs are still as beaten up as my 11-year-old Adidas Gazelles. (They started off deep blue, but have defied logic and science by going some shade of brownish gray. Weird.)

Does the cross-over side have a chance when Real Salt Lake meets Supporters Shield winner Columbus? Nah. I give the men of Utah a smidge of upset potential because Columbus hasn’t had to scrape and crawl for points the way others have lately, and it’s hard to crank up the intensity so quickly. Otherwise, the Crew has been amazingly solid from May on forward. And RSL will surely squander a few good chances while Guillermo Barros Schelotto passes and shoots his way into the second round.

So that leaves Houston-Seattle. And here’s where I’m calling the upset. The Dynamo has gone dull around the edges lately. They aren’t good on artificial turf (2-7-8, minus-9 in goal difference) since moving to Houston before the 2006 season. Ricardo Clark may not be at full speed – and they’ll need him on high rev to deal with Freddie Ljungberg, who has been exceptional lately. And phooey on anyone who says Seattle doesn’t have enough playoff experience, noting how just six players have taken part in the MLS post-season. I’m pretty sure Ljungberg and Kasey Keller, having played in a few big matches elsewhere, won’t exactly be throwing up in the locker room prior to tonight’s kickoff fat Qwest.

It’ll be close, but I see Seattle finding a way through.

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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I only disagree on one small item

It won’t be an upset no matter who wins/loses Houston v Seattle, as these teams are soooo closely matched. Both teams are built from the back to the front, and while their offensive styles are different the results have been similar.

One thing is heavily in Seattle’s favor
Better Keeper
Best Outfield Player on the Pitch.

by Sounder At Heart on Oct 29, 2009 4:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

good point

it’s always a little tough calling a 2 seed an upset over a 3 seed in MLS. But technically, it is what it is. besides, i think most people would consider a side with two of the last three MLS titles a favorite over an expansion side.

by Steve Davis on Oct 29, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

History means nothing tonight

Sorry, that’s the @Heart part speaking.

Obviously at this time Houston is the class of the league. DC>LAG>HD if C-bus wins this year they can join that train. If Seattle Doubles…

by Sounder At Heart on Oct 29, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Because Chicago always beats the Revolution in the playoffs"

Really? You might want to fact-check that:

Winner by year:
2000: Chicago
2002: Revs
2003: Chicago
2005: Revs
2006: Revs
2007: Revs
2008: Chicago

So the overall playoff series goes to the Revs, 4-3.

Yup, seems like Chicago “always” beats the Revs….

by bwidell on Oct 29, 2009 7:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

my bad

guess it just seemed that way. i do stand corrected.

by Steve Davis on Oct 29, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hold on Steve dont apoligize yet

Fire are 5-0-3 agins the Revs last 2 years. 3-0 in regular season 1-0-1 in playoffs last year. This season 1-0-2. So your quote always beats the revolutions should have been….“it seems lately Chicago never losses to N.E”

by Jscho316 on Oct 30, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Too evenly matched

Aside from Real Salt Lake/Columbus all the other matchups are coin flips in my mind. So there really isnt much of an underdog anywhere.

by GeoJock on Oct 29, 2009 8:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Seattle is only probable opening round upset. LA is vulernable b/c they share home with Chivas, so crowd is mixed both times, but they are too talented to let it bother them. Columbus is defending champs and RSL is barely in. Chicago is better than NE, but that rivalry is a coin flip (to a degree).

by chillicothe20 on Oct 30, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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