Freddy Adu's chances of making the U.S. World Cup roster next summer? I'd put them at about 25 percent

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Soccer is generally relegated to the sports page fringes – which is fine with me.

At World Cup time, however, you get a lot more "general market sports fan" interest and interaction. That’s not a terrible thing on the surface. The extra layers of attention help enhance the sport’s profile, which drives advertising and fluff soccer’s feathers in media matters. It’s why you got to see almost every World Cup qualifier on TV, and why ESPN is now all over EPL matches the way gossipy tabs are all over Tiger Woods at the moment.

But, there is a slight downside as a few more fans climb aboard soccer’s band-wagon for a few months every four years. Let’s call it the Freddy Adu factor.

There are a precious few soccer players known to the GMSF – the General Market Sports Fans, a creature indigenous to generic suburban sports bars, one that all too frequently engages in awkward chest bumps or high fives, and one who is ever-ready to wave the flag for any local, regional or national team they can claim and glom onto to help shape their identity. 

As for soccer, they may know a little bit about Landon Donovan. The faster beasts of the herd may even know something about Tim Howard. And since they once saw him on 60 Minutes or perhaps read about him in the USA Today (the one left outside their hotel room during the annual sales meetings), they know about Adu.

They know he’s a prodigy. They know he’s "all that." They know he was supposed to be Johan Cruyff, George Best and Franz Freakin’ Beckenbauer all rolled into one. At least, he was destined to be all this according to people who wouldn’t know Cruyff, Best or Franz Freakin’ Beckenbauer if they walked into their living room and began juggling oranges from the fruit basket.

So here we are approaching World Cup 2010. And I’ve already been asked by several people how Freddy Adu will do there?  In fact, some people who really should know better are even wondering how little Freddy will perform next year in South Africa.

For the GMSF, I just say something like, "He’s still pretty young. His time will come." Usually, that does the trick, providing just enough distraction before the GMSF steers back toward more comfortable topics with which he’s more masterful. Something along the lines of, "I’m pretty sure Indy’s gonna cover the 7 ½ this weekend. The Ravens just don’t have enough of a passing game to keep up."

Anyway, back to Adu. Here’s the deal – I’ll get it on record: I don’t see Freddy Adu making the U.S. roster next summer.

Adu isn’t playing regularly in Europe, and hasn’t for some time. Far as I can tell, that little feller has made fewer than 40 professional appearances over the last four years. I don’t care if he was once kissed on the cheek by Pele, that isn’t good.

Adu didn’t play in the last six U.S. World Cup qualifiers. He didn’t play in the Confederations Cup, which was clearly Bob Bradley’s top selection dress rehearsal.

Does that sound like a guy about to make the final 23 for next summer in South Africa?

Here’s something else to consider: World Cup teams spend A LOT of time together. They get sequestered three weeks or more before the tournament. When you add in the World Cup time, they travel, eat, drink, sleep and play together for about six weeks. You simply must have a tight, cohesive group, or it just doesn’t work (and becomes France ’98 for the U.S. team.) Adu? I’m not saying he’s a bitter apple. But Adu has some history of wanting to play and not being terribly happy when he doesn’t. Does that sound like a guy who will be named to the final 23?

On the field, it’s true that Adu has characteristics that few U.S. players possess. Specifically, he is one of the few players who can break down a defense on the dribble.

But that’s about all he brings. As a possession specialist, Jose Francisco Torres has lapped Adu. As a winger bent on supplying service from the flanks, Stuart Holden and Robbie Rogers have lapped Adu in Bradley’s pecking order. As a striker, Jozy Altidore and possibly even Robbie Findley have lapped Adu. (So had Charlie Davies, of course, before his devastating injury.)

Now understand, I don’t necessarily like or dislike Adu. I’m just laying out the facts.

Things do happen. Players get hurt. The needle of form does move up and down for players.  So, the young man’s chances of making Bradley’s roster next summer?

I’d put them at 25 percent.

Meanwhile, the chances that I’ll be asked regularly about Adu over the next six months. Alas, I’d put those at 100 percent.