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A theory about the steaming pile of pooh at D.C. United

United attacker Santino Quaranta; sure, he's pretty good. But maybe not as good as you think.

I’ve got a theory about the raggedy side at D.C. United.

Things really haven’t been good there for a while, and they sure aren't today. (For more on this year's woes, see my weekly MLS wrap at SI.com.) But they always seem to be on the rise, on the cusp of going all Ninja on MLS, because they always have a great player in the pipeline. If he’s not already at RFK, then Dave Kasper or someone is down in South America looking at the next great one.

We always expect United to do great things. Why? Well, because it’s D.C. United.

See, I think all things United get over-inflated due to a blend of abundant media coverage and D.C. United history.

The history part is easy. They ruled MLS back in the Wild West days (as Bruce Arena himself called them), locating and exploiting the salary loopholes earlier than others, assisted back in the day by a league office that looked the other way. (Now, all that is biting United because they are leaning too heavily on the glory days syndrome, thinking they were and might still be the smartest guys in the room, a condition which probably affected the hiring of Arena protégé Curt Onalfo.)

But I really believe the perennially inflated expectations have a lot to do with ace reporter Steven Goff and other good coverage the team gets. It’s not that Goff and others are complicit in drinking the Kool-Aid.  They aren't.  It’s just that the team gets such good coverage and always has.  So it gets stirred up in the buzz cycle, creating a situation where all things United tend to land with greater importance than they probably deserve. Goff is simply the best reporter in the country, so we get so much more news out of D.C. and about the team.

Star-divide

Here’s how it all works, once it all gets cooked into soup:

When D.C. United identifies a player and pursues him, everybody assumes that he must be pretty good. Makes sense, right? I mean, you have to be a good player to be pursued by D.C. United.

Then he arrives at RFK and everybody says, “Well, the guy has something special. After all, he turned up at D.C. United, so he must be a really good player.”

See how that circular pattern works? It’s the old “Heads I win, tails you lose” kind of thing. There’s no losing for United.

Well, until they start losing. And then everyone looks at each other, shrugs their shoulders and asked, “What happened?”

The truth? Probably as simple as this: the players weren’t that good all along.

Danny Allsopp? Meh. It's just one game, but he doesn’t look very fast. And I had my doubts all along that he could produce in MLS. But I will say it’s still early.

Cristian Castillo? Heard a lot of great things. I’m still waiting to see these great things.

Santino Quaranta? He’s a good player. Is he great? I don’t think so. But he gets a lot of miles out of a really good story of a human being turning his life around, so we might tend to inflate his true level of talent.

I could go on. I mean, how many goalkeepers and defenders have come through RFK? 

Same deal. He’s great! He’s the answer!

Until he ain’t.

Meanwhile, a player like Ryan Smith lands at Kansas City and nobody outside the Heartland hears about it. (That dude is fun to watch. He's going to be a handful for right backs all year.)

It seems like every year United is picked to do well. Then we look at a team like Colorado, just to pick out an example. Colorado stinks, right? (Not really. Not this year, especially. But follow along here … ) Colorado is never picked to do well.

Do you realize that Colorado collected more points over the last two seasons (2008 and 2009) than D.C. United?

So the talent at RFK isn’t really any better than a lot of other MLS destinations. But these other places, well, they are supposed to lose.  They don’t get good players.  Meanwhile, when the talent at RFK starts stinking up the joint, everybody is running around trying to figure out what the hell is going on. I mean, it can’t be the talent, right? Because these guys are good.

I’d like to hear what my SB Nation mates over at Black and Red United have to say about my theory.  Meanwhile, somebody run over to RFK and help Curt Onalfo start picking up the pieces. Stat!

FYI, I think it will take 45 points to make the playoffs this year. United has zero points out of three matches. That means they’ll need a record that looks something like 13-8-6 the rest of the way. Impossible? Certainly not. But you need talent to pull it off – and I’m not sure they have enough of it around RFK.

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The history isnt all that far behind us

Back to back Supporters Shields in 2006 and 2007 isn’t exactly ancient history. The teams that won those trophies were a collection of a few great South Americans to complement a mostly American starting lineup.

I do agree with you on your two main points: That our history sometimes works against us, and that Goff’s excellent reporting builds hype. But I also think that our failures under the Soehn and Onalfo regimes can be attributed more to acquiring the wrong players, or playing the right players in the wrong positions. Castillo is no Gomez (circa 2004) and Allsopp is no Emilio (circa 2007). United has clearly taken a big step back in terms of international scouting. And if the team thinks that Quaranta/Pontius/Wallace is the next Gomez/Moreno/Olsen then they won’t be getting much better anytime soon.

by Martin Shatzer on Apr 12, 2010 12:37 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Outside looking in vs. Inside looking out

Steve, I think you’re right on in saying that the emperor has no clothes, so to speak. I think there’s probably a very different perspective at this point between fans around the league and DC fans. If people out there still perceive United as having a leg up on player acquisition, then they haven’t been watching very closely. We’ve been as hit-or-miss as everyone else in MLS’s bland middle class.

Quick example of this difference in perspective: Revs announcer Brad Feldman mentioned that we were missing Marc Burch as a possible sign of weakness in our defense. Meanwhile, most United fans have long lamented Burch’s inability to defend consistently, his lack of quickness and agility, and his tendency to dive in rather than stay on his feet. It’s silly for anyone to think that Burch being out is a big blow. Yes, he’s a potential starter, but all that indicates is that our standards haven’t been high enough.

History and coverage do lend an air of elevated importance. I also have no problem admitting that, as a fanbase, we do feel entitled to a little more and also that we see ourselves holding a slightly loftier position than everyone else. Our early success has bred an arrogance throughout the club, from front office out into the stands and parking lots. I will bluntly state that I think DC is more important than a lot of other MLS teams, even with our recent failings.

I mean, look at what passes for failure here: In 2008, we won the Open Cup and missed the playoffs by 1 point by losing to Columbus 1-0 after hitting the woodwork 3 times and having Moreno, of all people, miss a sitter. In 2009, we made the Open Cup final and would have been in the playoffs if Wallace’s late shot is literally 1 inch further to the right in the last game at KC. A trophy, a final, and 2 middle-class finishes are not too bad for Dallas or Kansas City, but here in DC they’re received with the same kind of bile that San Jose fans had for their awful team last year. The standard here is higher, and it should be if we ever want to emulate the United of the 90s.

I still think this year’s squad will finish above the teams that are just crap, and below the teams that are actually any good. That’ll be somewhere between 6th and 12th, basically, just like last year and the year before. To me, that’s totally unacceptable and is also the main reason I didn’t want Onalfo in charge. I thought going after Porter was like swinging for the fences. Maybe he’d be in over his head, or maybe we really would be the smartest guys in the room. People from elsewhere often said that signing Onalfo was “the safe move,” which I never got. How is lowering our standard for success to “Let’s make the playoffs just barely and then see what happens” safe?

As for the specific players you mention, I think Allsopp is a bit underwhelming. I expect 5-8 goals from him, but on a team that will need to score frequently that’s probably a bit short. His miss just before halftime in Philly (with Seitz terribly out of position and an empty net beckoning) is really bothering me, and will until he does something to get it out of my head. Castillo is struggling to adjust to MLS, but I am being patient with him. Off the top of my head, I recall David Ferreira being pretty disappointing until the 2nd half of last season. It’s a different league, and Castillo’s international success came in a different formation (in El Salvador’s 4231, he was free to play a higher role on the left than he does in DC’s 442). I think there’s been a rush to judgment with him. Finally, Quaranta is one of MLS’s best right midfielders, but a) he’s not playing there and b) you can’t build your team around wide players.

DC has a good group of young players. The problem is that we need one or two more pieces that are better than that group to be the kind of team every United fan feels entitled to. Quaranta, Pontius, Wallace, and Jakovic would start on most MLS teams, but they would not be as vital as they are here. We have plenty of great soldiers, but we lack a general or two. That doesn’t necessarily mean a #10 (though in our particular case, it would be extremely nice to add one). What we need are a couple guys who can be the driving force of the team. Wilman Conde is a great example of such a player that defines his team despite not being a playmaker. We need players that our younger guys can look to for their cues. Big players make the small plays that change games, and right now we don’t have enough people making those plays.

I’m glad you picked Colorado out as a contrast. I do realize, to my great pain and displeasure, that the Rapids have taken more points than us in the last 2 years. It goes back to the talk of standards. If you’re within a point or two on either side of Colorado, you have not been a good MLS team over that period of time. Their organization has no ambition, and there seems to be no demand for more from their fans. Simply avoiding being the worst is good enough for them. To see them as one of our peers (an ever-so-slightly better-off peer, at that) is enough to cause me to lose sleep.

by ChestRockwell on Apr 12, 2010 1:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks

good stuff, both of you. Hey, Chest: Is SB Nation paying you by the word? (JK, man!)

by Steve Davis on Apr 12, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wish. I think this is my business model:

Step 1: Write lots of words about DC United
Step 2: ?
Step 3: Profit

by ChestRockwell on Apr 12, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

DCU's greatest strength

Is our bloggers/commentators, go Shatz and Chest!

by Irrlicht on Apr 12, 2010 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Overrated

Chest — Perhaps you’re right about the potential of our young players. Perhaps, if there were better defenders around him, Jakovic would look more solid. Perhaps Quaranta and Pontius could be effective role players if there real forces in the central midfield and striker positions. Perhaps even Wallace wouldn’t seem so lost. I’m just no so sure. Quaranta and Pontius have some nifty dribbling skills and are good passers. Neither of them are any good at shooting. Q hits it right at the goalie, and Pontius can’t put it on frame. Wallace is another guy without a strong position. He’s terrible in defense, but he’s also terrible at crossing, so wing isn’t great for him either. Plus, he’s too weak with his right foot to play centrally. Jakovic is pretty good at distributing the ball, but he’s also very vulnerable as a defender.

If these guys weren’t the ones we’re depending on to anchor the team, we could probably find ways to get more positive contributions from them. Still, I think we could do with upgrades at almost every position. Compare United to the Galaxy. If you’re Bruce Arena, do you take anyone from United to play in the Galaxy’s starting XI?

by fischy on Apr 14, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Make an appointment to see a chiropractor

DC’s problem is that the spine of the team has been deteriorating for years.

Central defense continues to be a problem area for them. Remember when Boswell was thought to be the problem. He seemed to right the ship almost instanteously after arriving in Houston.

This weakness is compounded by an awful midfield collection which cannot do anything well, they’re terrible. DC got dominated by an expansion team playing in its second match with a 32 yr old journeymen, an 18 year old rookie and two former DC players. That just shouldn’t happen.

For the life of me, I cannot figure what Kurt Morsink can do well. Can’t pass, doesn’t maintain possession or link up play well and isn’t a great tackler. If you can’t do at least one of those things well, you’ve got no business being a starting central midfielder for a professional team.

Lastly, they thought that they had finally solved their goalkeeper situation, but Perkins had a nightmare of a match on many different levels this past Saturday.

by Phil McCrack'n on Apr 12, 2010 10:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Morsink does switch play very well against teams playing low pressure (see: week 2 vs. New England). If teams are going to bunker in against us, he can be an asset.

However, seeing as how a high-pressure approach worked so well for both KC and Philly, while the Revs should have been buried by halftime, what coach would possibly risk bunkering against us at this point? The way to deal with us at this point is to be on the front foot, break up any passing rhythm we might build, and force us to defend.

I don’t think the midfield is “terrible,” but in the current alignment (without Simms and with Quaranta playing centrally) they are certainly not very good. I think we improved drastically when Barklage was moved into the middle, Quaranta moved to the right, and Pontius played on the left. For the time being, in the interest of getting some points and building something resembling confidence, I think that’s the way we need to play until the summer window opens. Then again, I also called for playing 2 battlers in the middle and Quaranta as a winger before the season, so what do I know?

by ChestRockwell on Apr 13, 2010 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Morsink

It’s really tough sometimes to see what’s going on when you watch on TV. I think this especially applies to D-Mids like Morsink. FWDs, GKs, DFs, you can usually tell if they are effective just by seeing what they do with the ball. D-Mids … it’s not so much about where they are, it’s often where they aren’t. No what I mean? Are they clogging lanes and covering ground? And with the ball, it’s all about what’s happening around them. I.E., do they have options. and are they putting themselves in the right spots to create options … but you can’t see that on TV. So, I see Morsink moving the ball around the park, as Chest noted. And that’s good. But where is Quaranta? Is he providing an outlet? Same with Catillo and Barklage. And are those DCU defenders giving him balls early enough or holding it too long so that Morsink has someone up his ass by the time he gets possession? I dunno. That’s why I’ll reserve judgment until some other MFs are in place.

by Steve Davis on Apr 13, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hard to disagree

Of course, with Boz, the trade was a big wake-up call for him. He also has an outstanding coach now.

As for the spine of the team — it’s as broken as our wings. Perhaps Chest is right about Castillo. maybe he needs to be playing closer to goal. On the other hand, I’m kinda psyched to see Najar running the offense, with Q back on the right wing. Left wing — not sure if Pontius is a better option than Castillo, but he’s not scoring up top. Perhaps a 4231 would work for this team, when Simms is healthy. Especially if one of the 2 is Veron or Riquelme. I’m hoping that DC is Pires’ MLS destination. He’d be an amazing addition at left wing, and we could send Castillo back to Leon (or see how he does centrally). Of course, I’m guessing that Pires is more likely to make a reunion with Ljundberg in Seattle.

I do want to echo what Chest wrote about perception and reality. Perhaps outside of DC, there has been high expectations for the team and their signings. In DC, I think that went out the window with the colossal failure of Grandmaster Wells and the Fabulous Five — (Gallardo, Niell, the two Gonzalos, and that goalie whose NoVA mom sent the team a highlight reel). The smartest men in the room — that bunch put the lie to that canard. It also makes me question whether the team is seriously scouting any more. I do think the front office is living off of their reputation, which is no longer merited. There was a flicker of hope this offseason, when they announced N’Galula and Castillo, but reality set in quickly as other MLS teams brought in better Salvadoreans and Europeans who weren’t washed up.

Pointing the finger of blame on Goff is absurd. It’s not his fault he’s the only serious MLS beat reporter working and getting featured by a major newspaper. He’s not really hyping DC, and it’s not his job to cover all the other teams equally. So, if everyone is surprised by the success of a Ryan Smith or Joel Lindpere, don’t blame DCU fans or Steven Goff.

by fischy on Apr 14, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I understand what you’re both saying, but I sat at the 50 yd line on Sat and watched Morsink live. Didn’t really see a lot of positive play from him, but I guess when a team is going bad, some players can hide and others can’t.

by Phil McCrack'n on Apr 13, 2010 11:15 AM EDT reply actions  

I hope I didn’t come across as in favor of Morsink. I just wanted to point out that he can do some things well.

That said, we’re going to be weak in central midfield until Simms returns. Morsink has a hard man’s attitude, but not the hard man’s volume of won tackles (or even attempted tackles). I also have noticed that, despite the fact that Morsink looks like he wants to be an antagonist, no one appears to be nervous about playing him. There’s no “gotta take that extra look over my shoulder in case this guy decks me” factor. I’m not saying I want him to be a goon, but even a goon can have a positive influence in some ways. He’s also guilty of something that most DC players have been doing in all three games, which is not getting the ball off his feet fast enough.

by ChestRockwell on Apr 13, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

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