World Cup South Africa; things I learned while writing a preview

I’ve been working furiously on team previews and other goodies for a World Cup preview magazine. (One that should be at your local news stand soon, presuming I can step away from my work here and here and here and at this little blog long enough to finish up all the related content.)

Here are five important things I’ve taken away while navigating the rivers, forests and sands of global research:

1. Slovenia manager Matjaz Kek is the new Guus Hiddink. OK, not really, because Hiddink has proven himself peerless in managing personnel across a wide variety of cultures. Truly, that dude is a badass, as everyone knows. But tactically, Kek could give the Dutch wiz a run for his money. As Kek’s defense was statistically among the best in European qualifying, he proved to be a master of tactical arrangement. Slovenia’s level of organization and discipline while defending in two blocks of four would make a U.S. Marine stand up and take notice. He also proved adept at exploiting opposition weakness.

Truly, the man knows his stuff like FAO Schwarz knows toys. How else to explain a nation of 2 million upending a nation of 142 million (Russia) in a two-leg playoff?

The United States meets Slovenia in its second group match, June 18 in Johannesburg. They’ll need ideas and innovation to break down the Slovenians. And they’ll have to be locked in mentally, aware of the counter attack that’s surely coming with a menace the moment they drop focus.

Read on for four more little pearls from my research ... if you dare:

2. The Dutch will be so infuriatingly Dutch once again. I hate to say that. Just like so many soccer fans, I appreciate the Dutch approach and always want them to do well for the game’s sake. Alas, I don’t see it happening, in spite of a qualification campaign unrivaled in its dominance.

Why? Wesley Sneijder. I didn’t realize until I started poking around how much a divisive figure he really was. I wasn’t aware of the feuding between he and Arjen Robben, who seems a bit like a prima donna himself. I could be wrong, of course. It has happened before. Heck, just look at my predictions in MLS last weekend.

Side note: I have written 24 team previews. (Someone else wrote the other eight). If I have to write the words “qualification campaign” just once more, I swear I’ll be so upset that I’ll lose my ability to punctuate properly.

3. How the United States will do: I just don’t see the United States going very far. The lack of penetrating fullbacks, the lack quality strikers and the lack of depth throughout will bite Bob Bradley’s team. I know this doesn’t exactly qualify as a “bold prediction.” On the other hand, people keep asking me how the United States will do; so now you know how I feel.

I do believe Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan give the United States a quality that neither Algeria nor Slovenia possesses: game-changers in the attack who can and have risen to big moments. That, along with some big performances from Tim Howard, another difference-maker who simply must be on top of his game, might just be enough to get the Americans into the second round. 

Disclaimer: I reserve the right to change my mind. We’re still 58 days out, after all.

And besides, as I wrote in the U.S. preview, so very much depends on Oguchi Onyewu’s ability to return, sharp and fit. It’ll be close. (Same for Charlie Davies, too, of course, but his return remains a longer shot.)

4. This tricky Slovakia-Slovenia matter: During the World Cup, facing the deadline beast and attempting to pay the bills by writing across multiple platforms, I will be guilty of writing “Slovakia” when I mean “Slovenia,” or vice versa.  It is not a question of “if,” it’s a question of “how many.” I mean, seriously, most of you couldn’t point to either place on a map. Me either before the round of previews. And the names are separated by only two letters. I put my personal over/under at 2.5.

5. The dark horse pick: I might have named Paraguay as my dark horse team, but this terrible Salvador Cabañas matter could damage the unheralded South Americans’ chances.  As my pal Richard Farley over at World Soccer Digest has noted, most people don’t know a lot about Paraguay because not enough of their players earn a living inEurope. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t quality cats. We just haven’t heard as much about them. This is a pretty good team, one that kicked Argentina pretty good in qualifying.

On the one hand, Cabanas’ loss could be a unifying force. (The prolific forward was shot in the head in a Mexico City bar last winter; he is recovering but will not be available.) On the other hand, the loss of such a talent is difficult to overcome. Paraguay won’t win the World Cup, but it’s a team that I like, one that could stir up a ruckus in South Africa.

So, who is my dark horse pick? Well, you’ll just have to buy the damn preview!