Dumbing down the MLS playoff race: Eight teams, three spots
by Steve Davis on Aug 23, 2010 9:41 AM EDT
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I’m going to seriously dumb down the MLS playoff race here, wielding the magic wand of wild assumption.
We are into the final third of the season, as all but two teams have played either 20 or 21 matches. (The season is 30 matches per team.)
So here is an overly simplified look at the post-season race based on these wild-ass assumptions. Strange things can and do happen, so we may have to revisit these "givens," but let’s not get bogged down for now.
I’m declaring that teams with at least 34 points "In." That list is
I’m declaring teams with fewer than 21 point as "Out." That list is
So where does that leave the bulk of the "race" in a 16-team league? Here’s where:
Pull five teams off the top, three off the bottom and we’re left with eight sides scrapping for three spots. So there’s a heck of a mad dash ahead.
We hear about "six-pointers." That’s where two contending clubs meet. Ostensibly, a win in that match adds three points to one ledger and keeps the other team from adding the potential points to their total. The math doesn’t exactly work out as such, but again, let’s not get bogged down in details.
So the six-pointers ahead will be any matches pitting
Clearly, some teams are better positioned than others.
On the other end,
Still, it all makes for an exciting few weeks in eight different cities.
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I think this is part of the problem with MLS
I support the LA Galaxy but it is hard to care about the games when there is still a third of the season to be played and the Galaxy are already “in”. With such a large playoff field the games just don’t mean enough, in most cases, to get excited about.
Los Angeles is like Manchester. There is a red team that wins championships and a blue team that doesn't.
That becomes less of a concern every year
50% is a better rate than NBA and NHL
I’d like the Playoffs to be about 1/3 of teams, so that average teams don’t get the reward.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
by Dave Clark on Aug 23, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
1/3 sounds pretty ideal to me as well.
By the way, I just got back from a vacation in Seattle. It’s as nice as I’d heard and I loved the level of support for the Sounders in the community/media up there. I’d hoped that it would work out so that I could attend a game but it was not meant to be. If I was a neutral looking for a team to support it would be hard not to pick the Sounders.
Los Angeles is like Manchester. There is a red team that wins championships and a blue team that doesn't.
Exciting games
Well, Phil, some teams who have “already qualified” for the MLS playoffs have meaningful CCL games to care about coming down the stretch. Do the Galaxy have any….oh, right. Sorry. :)
Seriously, though, the Galaxy are sniffing at the Supporters Shield. Doesn’t every game count as long as RSL and Columbus are on your heels?
by ARSL on Aug 23, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Fair enough jab
regarding the CCL. Yes the Supporters Shield does provide somthing of interest.
But I’ve found myself ecstatic with the start of the EPL season but MLS feels like it is in a holding pattern till the playoffs start.
Los Angeles is like Manchester. There is a red team that wins championships and a blue team that doesn't.
Playoffs are dumb anyway...
The SS is what the MLS is all about and I’d rather see a complete overhaul of the “playoff” format. Let’s do a Carling Cup-type tournament with all of the teams in the MLS and make it be a separate championship. I’m no Eurosnob, but the playoffs seem to be a measure of which team is peaking at the right time…not who is the best team (which is the SS winner). Both are exciting but should be kept separate imo.
USOC is basically the same as the Carling isn't it?
by chrisperry1983 on Aug 23, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a little different
I think the main difference is the USOC forces each individual division to choose eight teams to compete against everyone, whereas the Carling Cup lets everyone in the lower divisions randomly play each other (rather than forcing the first few games against their own division). For the top leagues, the only difference is that the EPL teams in the Europa and Champions League enter later in the Carling Cup than the other teams, but the non-top-six MLS teams must play each other first for two spots.
I think what jyj was trying to say was to create a separate tournament for only the MLS teams. That way winning the league would mean something important and yet we could still have a tournament. I’d guess in this scenario we’d need to do home-and-home, or else pick a neutral site for all the games (more like the World Cup) and have it at the end of the year.
by johnnycougar on Aug 23, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
So basically you (and jyj) are advocating the playoffs
except it’s called something different and we let everyone in? I’d rather have the playoffs the way they are. I actually like the playoffs more or less they way they are and am think the Supporters Shield, while good, is secondary. At this stage, unless you support LA, RSL or the Crew, who cares? Sure, they playoffs do certainly mainly benefit teams that are peaking at the right time, but isn’t that true in any sport (college bball being maybe the most extreme example, where giants gets slain all the time).
I feel like no matter what method you use to determine who’s champion in your league, country, whatever, there are going to be issues with it. There is no perfect way to do it. The best you can do is choose a way to do it and minimize the issues/inequalities/complaints that it inevitably leads to. MLS has playoffs.
It's true there is no perfect way
As you said – playoffs, especially playoffs with short series or single elimination games, often don’t end up with the best team winning. I like it when the best team wins. I enjoy that more than when random team x gets hot and wins. Though there is definitely something to be said for the unpredictability and drama of such scenarios. Which is why mainly I’m advocating having both competitions in MLS, with ideally equal prize money and / or positions in Champions League or what have you. I don’t see why one has to be undermined to make way for the other.
by johnnycougar on Aug 24, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Shield has a major flaw when the league gets back to unbalanced schedules
Let’s say the league gets to the point where there are Home/Away in Conference but only 1 game against each team out of conference.
Why should the best team in the East be called the Best just because they get to pound DC and Philly?
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Good Point
The West has been better than the East for a while now… but the past four seasons, an East team won the Supporters’ Shield.
Exactly
couldn’t you make the argument that an East team won the SS b/c the West teams picked points off of each other? just sayin …
by Steve Davis on Aug 23, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
This, exactly this
100 times this
Playoffs are ideal in unbalanced schedules (see Scotland, every American sport). But they make no sense in a balanced single table (see Mexico, 2010 MLS)
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Playoffs are nice though
They actually make the most meaningful games come at the end of the season. It also allows for teams to be more aggresive in working in young talent, as teams can afford to drop a point or two. There’s something to be said for peaking at the end of the season. That said, 8 teams is too many in a 20 team league. 4 would be plenty.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 24, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Travel is quite a bit different for the various teams
The shortest road trip for Seattle is to San Jose, 840 miles away. Columbus has 7 road trips shorter than this.
(As an FYI, the longest road trip for any team in the EPL is 285 miles between Newcastle and the London-based sides).
Don’t Columbus’ midweek trips to Central America for the CCL count for something?
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
by woodsmeister on Aug 23, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
As part of the MLS regular season?
No, I guess I’m not seeing the logical link between CCL matches and why we should or should not have a playoff system in MLS.
Conversely, do you not think the long trip that other teams have to get to Seattle give them somewhat of a home advantage?
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
by woodsmeister on Aug 24, 2010 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Except that
Under MLS rules each team is only allowed to take a certain number of chartered flights per season (I think it’s 2, but may be corrected on that).
by PeterJH on Aug 24, 2010 10:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Four legs
And while other teams make 1 trip to seattle a year, seattle makes 15 trips away.
Which side of that equation would you want to be on
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
6 of the Sounders' last 9 are 'six-pointers'
though it’s pretty likely that the Houston game in October might not be as Houston could very well be out of it by then and possibly the same will be true of KC. Still, while I’m too lazy to check every other team’s schedule, I’d have to think that’s a higher percentage of ‘six-pointers’ than most teams have coming down the stretch.
San Jose's schedule is interesting
They’re in the midst of a ridiculous six-game stretch (@LA, SEA, @COL, KC, LA, @NY), after which they’ll have played 8 of 10 games against teams currently ahead in the standings and just 12 of 20 against teams currently behind. And most of those are against bottom-feeders.
Couple that with having played fewer games than most of the other bubble teams and SJ is in very good shape.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
SJ still has
road trip to face NY’s superstars this weekend, Dallas on 9/11, Chicago 9/29, and Columbus 10/2.
Win or lose, we will always be here for you.
by johnjahafanclub on Aug 24, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
come on RSL started with
@ San Jose, @ Houston, Seattle, @ LA, and @ Columbus for their first 5, and have only lost once since that stretch was over. I think LA getting 6 of 7 at home at the end of the year is awful, but scheduling is often a very tough thing to do. I do think it is interesting that RSL has yet to face their biggest rival Colorado (home on 9/25, away 10/23), or the “big bad Red Bulls” (home on 9/4, away on 10/9). There is little fluff on the rest of RSL’s schedule (OK at New England might be a bit of fluff).
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