In praise of the streaking striker
One immutable truth to the global game is that strikers reap the most handsome paydays.
Oh, the blue ribbon goalkeepers and center backs of the world don’t exactly need to pick up cans along the side of the road for extra spending cash, but those paychecks generally just aren’t as hefty.
Here’s one of the reasons why: a hot striker can absolutely carry a team.
I’ve read a couple of stories in the last couple of days about the Los Angeles Galaxy about what’s gone wrong at
On the other hand, what might the Galaxy’s last month or so look like if Edson Buddle was striking at the prodigious rate we saw earlier this year?
Buddle hit for No. 10 on July 4 as the soaring Galaxy topped
Bruce Arena’s team is 3-5-1 in all competitions since. In MLS, the Galaxy has seen its once-mighty lead in the West shrink to four points over
Since then he has three goals in six league matches. That’s not terrible – it’s just not a strike rate that will drag a team toward greatness. Again, this isn’t to suggest that the Galaxy malaise is all about Buddle’s drop in production. Rather, it’s an illustration of the value of a streaking striker.
(Along those same lines, Landon Donovan picked up his 10th assist that night against
Here’s another example: The Seattle Sounders have recently gotten their groove back. Part of it is the curious case of addition by subtraction as it relates to fast Freddie Ljungberg. I’ve talked to Dave Clark (CEO of the flourishing Sounder at Heart enterprises) and I can’t really come to grips with that one … but let’s stay on topic here.
An undeniable aspect of the Sounder revival is Fredy Montero’s amazing run. The feisty little Colombian had scored or assisted in nine consecutive matches before last weekend’s scoreless draw at Chivas
Around my part of the world, Jeff Cunningham’s stunning rebirth and big streak a year ago nearly led FC Dallas back from the dead, as Schellas Hyndman’s team came so close to battling out of the cellar and into a playoff spot.
So, mammas, don’t let your babies grow up to be fullbacks. Or, if you do, don’t expect ‘em to pick up the truly ginormous paychecks.
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nice post
I equate this to a closer (or a slugger) in baseball, When they are on a hot streak, they are nearly unstoppable. When they are not, they look average.
This is part of the reason I was so upset Buddle did not get much time in the World Cup. He was in the middle of a tremendous hot streak but did not get a chance to get going (and yes, I will be sour about this for a while).
by JoshuaR on Aug 25, 2010 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
" Only build on positives , don't stack the negatives...Instead of criticizing , what was a positive?" - Donavin Darius
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no reason for you not to be sour
I think many of us will because of the “what ifs” going through our heads.
by I need more Esteban on Aug 25, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Baseball hitters don't actually have hot streaks, you know
It’s a myth. You’re literally imagining them out of random patterns in data. This is provable, and has been so proved numerous times.
While I’ve not seen proof of it, I rather suspect that goalscoring in soccer is just as random as hitting in baseball (or shooting in basketball, or any other low-percentage sports activity) is.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
It's true
this
is a paper that discusses the myth in terms of basketball shooting.
The conclusion is that past performance is no indication of future performance, so streaks are just anomalies (like tossing a coin and getting “heads” six times in a row.
The problem is that streaks do seem real to both players nd fans.
I've got very catholic taste in music. I like anything by the Pope.
by Arizona via Slough on Aug 26, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Hot streaks are generally undervalued in Soccer because of observer bias
There’s a quote that has a lot of traction in the coaching community: “form is temporary, class is permanent,” which basically means that hot streaks aren’t worth basing long term decisions around (though events like the WC do shape a lot of transfer decisions). Goals per shot on goal (some guys hover around 70% to 80%, keep in mind that shots on goal per shots can be pretty poor) are not an extremely low percentage activity (hitting a home run per AB or even per hit). They are not as high percentage (goals for all shots) as making a basket (48%,say). However, their influence on win probability is pretty obscene (significant) compared to other sports because goals are so few and far between.
Another point, if I may. Strikers are not the highest paid soccer players- though salary numbers are somewhat hard to find, off the top of my head CR was the top paid player in the world last year (and he makes less money that Travis Outlaw in salary, making a mockery of the idea of the NBA being a rational maket); Figo, Zidane, and numerous other midfielders have held that honor. Maicon might have been it had he transferred to Real Madrid.
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