MLS Playoffs: what to expect in tonight's second leg action

Home-and-away series in MLS playoffs tend to play out like the company Christmas party: things may start out a little slow, stodgy and cautious. But pretty soon furniture is being tipped over, fights are breaking out, things are gettin’ wacky and, by the latter stages, you just don’t know what kind of craziness may claim the night.

So, who’s watching the two MLS deciders later tonight?

Here’s what I see happening in tonight’s pair of return legs, as Real Salt Lake looks to cinch off matters in the highly charged air in downtown Seattle and Colorado looks to spurn ridiculously long odds at Livestrong Sporting Park.

Sporting Kansas City-Colorado, 8 p.m. ET, Fox Soccer Channel: I’ll just get right down to the bottom line here: the champs are in a very bad way here, up against it like a huffing and hacking old Honda racing a new Beamer.  If the Rapids can somehow go into Sporting Kansas City’s shiny new cauldron and overturn a two-goal deficit, it would go down as one of the biggest upsets in MLS playoff history – and as one of the ugliest of playoffs collapses on SKC’s side.

But not to worry about all that; It won’t happen.

Colorado would be pressed to come up with a two-goal win at Livestrong Sporting Park in the best of circumstances, which these ain’t. The Rapids’ injury list now includes Pablo Mastroeni, Conor Casey, Jamie Smith, Kosuke Kimura, Drew Moor and Caleb Folan. If that’s not enough, veteran defender Tyrone Marshall is suspended after his harsh red card in the opening leg. So, I’d reckon that between Mastroeni, Casey, Moor and Smith, that’s four of the Rapids’ top six men. Mastroeni, at least, is questionable. The rest are out.

That’s simply a bridge too far for the champs, whose reign will officially end tonight. (And given the relationship between Gary Smith and technical director Paul Bravo, strained and tenuous at best, I’d say that chances are good that this version of the Rapids is pretty much done, although there’s enough there to rebuilt an effective, albeit different, side.)

None of this, by the way, is to diminish Sporting Kansas City’s ongoing good form. Teal Bunbury is hot, and Peter Vermes’ side should manage things comfortably without risking Omar Bravo, who is now dealing with a minor groin strain and was a late scratch from the first leg.

(By the way, things could get a little ugly in this one. Smith came off complaining of SKC’s physical play Sunday outside Denver. Look, I like Smith and respect the job he’s done at DGS Park. But this is surely pot-calling-the-kettle stuff. Mastroeni and Jeff Larentowicz are tough guys. And ramrod striker Conor Casey could have been cautioned about six times in last year’s MLS Cup final, when the Rapids benefitted from the lenient MLS refereeing that drives me so insane. So, yes, SKC has some tough characters, too, who sometimes can go too far, as I’ve written before. Still, Smith really shouldn’t go there.)

Click on through to the other side … for Seattle-RSL talk. (Hint: I give the home team more of a chance than others might.)

Seattle-Real Salt Lake, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN2:  What’s with all the biblical talk? I keep hearing that it will take “miracles” for Seattle to overcome the over-comable. For the record, RSL carries a 3-0 lead into the “second half.”

I’m aware of all the odds-stacking facts here, mostly that no MLS team has ever faced a three-goal deficit in a home-and-away set, and that difference-making attacker Mauro Rosales remains unavailable for the Sounders. But this alarming center back situation for the visitors throws everything into doubt. I’m not going to say it’s an all-bets-off situation – but it’s damn close.

Real Salt Lake without Nat Borchers and Jamison Olave looks like a three-legged dog to me; that little guy can still run and still bite, but not at anything close to the same fierce velocity. I spoke to the Real Salt Lake folks yesterday and they were a little more optimistic about Borchers than Olave, although both remained in the “we’ll see” mode.

If young Chris Schuler is paired with Olave or Borchers, RSL can probably stack the midfield and be OK. Past that, all the RSL options fall in one of two areas: “not very good” and “even worse.” And even if RSL does stack the midfield, and even if one or both of the first-choice center backs are available, Seattle has a puncher’s chance in this thing.

Once the first goal goes in, no matter when it is, CenturyLink Field will become a place of chilling emotion. Truly, MLS teams rarely deal with the level of pressure that will, at that moment, suck the air right out of the teeming grounds. At that point, Seattle could rise on the energy of it all and makes things very, very interesting.

I say RSL will hang on and advance, but I give Seattle more of a chance to overturn this thing than some people.