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When every game matters: What MLS can learn from NFL

When reaching the playoffs becomes the thought that consumes every MLS fans' mind, you'll see even more moments of raw, unhinged emotion -- like this one last year at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.

A binding NFL-MLS link will always exist. The Hunt family and Kraft family were early MLS pioneers, of course. Later, Paul Allen (Seattle Seahawks and Sounders) showed everyone how an NFL-MLS partnership should look. Those two, to borrow from Forest Gump, go together like peas and carrots.

So I’m a little perplexed about why one element that makes NFL so special has completely escaped MLS ownership, which, again, are one in the same to a certain measure:

Earning a playoff spot in the National Football League is a special thing. Just 12 of 32 teams gain a post-season pass, and fans look forward to those evocative, white-knuckle, winner-take-all contests like Christmas, Thanksgiving and Halloween all rolled into one.  

I thought of this on Monday, watching the Cowboys and Redskins play in Week 3.  The announcers talked about how few playoff games Dallas has won in recent years, and how few playoff opportunities the Redskins have experienced during that same window.  So, even this early in the 2011 campaign, a lot was riding on this one. On all of them, really.

Yes, the Cowboys and Redskins are old NFL rivals, and that tends to weaponize the interest. And obviously, the brevity of a 16-game regular season adds weight to each kickoff.  Still, you always (always!) get the feeling that NFL games are critical. Lose just one and the view of the playoffs dims a little. Even in Week 3.

I thought of all this again while watching an unbelievable sports night unfold Wednesday. I’m not much of a baseball fan, but the theater of Red Sox collapse, all knotted up strangely with the need for Yankee success, was simply irresistible. It was all about making the playoffs. After all, just 8 of 30 teams get that opportunity in Major League Baseball.  

NBA, NHL and Major League Baseball will never get the opportunity to make each regular season game as meaningful as those in NFL. Generally speaking, regular season games in NBA, NHL and MLB fall equally under the headings of “competitive professional sporting event” and “nacho cheesy entertainment event.” In baseball, the season is just too damn long, so upping the ante for individual dates over a 162-game slate game is a lost cause.

Pretty much the same for hockey and basketball, so they don’t even try to make the playoffs special. They more or less just eliminate the particularly terrible teams and then open it up for “tournaments” that last almost three months. Yes. Three months.

Take away the rivalry contests and the games electrified by big stars, and one kickoff/tipoff/faceoff in the regular season is pretty much like all the others.

MLS has a chance to be more than that. It won’t be the NFL in my lifetime, and that’s fine. It doesn’t need to be NFL XXL in terms of media and fan appeal to reach a tipping point in terms of individual match significance in the bigger picture.

Read on for where MLS owners are missing the boat …

Star-divide

Major League Soccer can certainly get to the point where all 34 regular season contests – or 32 or 36, or wherever they land; I understand it’s still in flux – come attached to a certain weight.

I know why they added two clubs to a playoff field that was already too big. (This year, 10 of 18 sides earn one of those water-down MLS playoff berths.)  They want to create exciting races at the end. And they want as many teams as possible involved in these breath-takers. They want everyone to remain relevant in September.

So right now, with just one team officially eliminated (with three others on serious life support, only mathematically alive), MLS owners are probably patting themselves on the back. The Eastern Conference is jammed up like the 405 at rush hour, and the Wild Card races remain a roll of the dice.

So, yes, owners have succeeded in driving a few more September fans to a few more stadiums in a selected few markets.

But all this still strikes me as short-sighted, as a reach for nearby coins when dollar bills can be had with just a little more patience.

What if every match came attached to a little more meaning? What if next year, the growing legion of real MLS supporters – as opposed to the “family” set, the model that drove MLS marketing 1.0, the ones who will show up for just one or two matches a year no matter what – develops a richer and richer appreciation for how every match matters? Every. Single. Match.

How to achieve that (or get closer, at least)? Make the playoffs more selective. Go back to 8 teams. For next year, that would mean 8 get in, 11 stay out. When MLS adds club No. 20, the element of discrimination would move even further in the right direction. Then, in ever more markets, over ever more dates, every match would truly matter. More and more fans would wake up on match day with a little nervousness in the pit of their tummies. 

We already see it in Seattle and Portland. We would probably see it in Toronto if the BMO brain trust hadn’t gone all FUBAR about 16 different ways over the years. We’ve gotten bits and pieces of this awareness through the years in Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Chicago and perhaps elsewhere.

How great would it be if matches in May, June, July, etc., all came with an earnest tension? After all, each club has just 16 home matches at the moment. Win the majority and the playoffs are in sight.

Of course, the playoffs have to be truly important in the fans’ eyes. They have to covet those playoff spots badly – and die just a little when they don’t get one, the way Red Sox fans died just a little last night.

Last year before MLS Cup, Don Garber talked about the atmosphere around DSG Park as the Colorado Rapids hosted a conference championship match, seeking their second MLS Cup appearance. He talked about how those “moments” drive MLS forward, creating these invaluable mile markers across MLS markets. Clubs, and the clubs' relationships with fans, are never the same after they cross these emotional thresholds. 

It's a great thing and he’s got that part right. Every market needs those moments. I just think you get more of them, and they reach a deeper level, when breaching the playoff barrier becomes a true accomplishment – not just a weak indicator that your middling team was just a little less middling than a few others.

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Great points

Just wondering where you come down on what teams make it? Best 8 or best 4 from each conference, or some hodge podge between those two?

I am leaning heavily towards top 8 make it in and we have them play based on order of finish, not who plays where?

by denz on Sep 29, 2011 4:44 PM EDT reply actions  

good idea, but financially/politically feasible?

Steve, I agree with just about everything you’re saying. I have to ask, though, how many of the owners do think are capable of thinking longterm like that? Last time Forbes released a report on MLS clubs’ finances, only a couple were profitable. Granted, that report was pre-Sounders if I remember correctly, so things have probably improved.
In your conversations with execs, broadcasters, and other journalists, how many of the clubs would you guess are still hurting for cash? I guarantee the owners of such clubs will pitch a fit if someone tries to lessen the possibility of their squad being in a crowd-drawing playoff race.

by fennsk1 on Sep 29, 2011 5:16 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

That's exactly the point...

It’s all theoretical, of course, but I think they’d make more money in the long run by making more games more important. That’s building for the long haul — and hopefully increasing profits over the long haul. Clearly, they are thinking a little more short-term, which must seem to them the safer bet.

by Steve Davis on Sep 29, 2011 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Having 10 playoff teams makes regular season more meaningful than 8

I need you to have some patience, Steve. You’re totally underestimating the impact of the bye, but watch it actually play out for a couple of years, and you’re going to see why it’s a big deal.

That was the beauty of going to 10 teams—at the same time as the league can keep more teams alive in the playoff race later in the season, the odds of the 8-seed winning the championship will actually get worse than they were before—by a lot. (Essentially, they’ll almost be cut in half.) If only the home-and-home, which is the great “let’s totally ignore rewarding the regular season” factor in the playoffs went away, we’d have ourselves a pretty good format.

The regular season in MLS will never mean what it does in the NFL as long as we play as many games as we do—it’s your “MLB plays too many games” principle in reverse. An 11-5 record is substantially different than a 10-6 record. This would still be true if the NFL invited 50% of the teams to the playoffs, because then the 11-5’ers would get better seeding and a better chance at the Super Bowl. (Take it further to the extreme and you get college football, where a single loss often wrecks your whole season.)

What makes the NFL have a meaningful regular season is mostly a short regular season, that not only makes every game a significant difference in record, but also also makes every game an event. But it’s also a playoff structure that significantly rewards those entrants that did better in the regular season—and that’s one of the things we can learn from the NFL.

'Gentlemen' he said,
'I don't need your organization,
I've shined your shoes,
moved your mountains and marked your cards,
but Eden is burning.
Either get ready for elimination,
or else your heart must have the courage,
for the changing of the guards.'

by Sgc on Sep 29, 2011 7:54 PM EDT reply actions  

On the point of college football

having only a “2 team playoff” with arbitrary rules, actually makes many team’s seasons meaningless, teams that went undefeated, teams that did everything that was before them. It’s a fine balance in who to include in playoffs. Consider the Packers last year: they barely made the playoffs, yet steamrolled through them. Nobody doubted their “quality”. Nobody proclaimed them a “fluke” who shouldn’t have made the playoffs in the first place. They won the extra game set before them, won it all on the road.

I had my doubts about the new MLS playoff system. But it isn’t really 10 teams getting in. It is 8 teams with 4 teams playing head to head for the last 2 spots. The only real change I would like to see I make the semifinals 2 legged.

by musamonster on Sep 29, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

SGC hit it right on the head

We need to play a shorter season. 26 to 28 regular season matches with playoffs is enough. There’s no reason to play games in early March in front of 25% capacity or November in below freezing weather.

April to late October is good enough for MLB. It’s more than good enough for MLS. This notion that we have to play from Aug to late May like Europe is overkill.

by Gazza on Oct 1, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Please fix the playoff format...

With an unbalanced schedule coming up, can we please cut down to 8 teams making the playoffs, and the playoff comprise a home and home? Maybe make the lower seed team play a midweek game, while the higher seeded team gets to play at home?

10 teams is too many. The format for the playoffs is absolutely short sighted. It so hard trying to explain the setup to folks who don’t know what’s going on. Do you think they are making new fans with that messed up format? If it’s not consistent, and it doesn’t make sense, people will marginalize it.

Got rid of the penalty shootout BS. Pat on the back.
Got rid of the count down clock. Pat on the back.
Now please fix the *ucking playoff format, then leave it alone.

I like the playoffs myself, and there is something to be said about playing for the Supporters Shield (automatic birth to the CCL, which means more allocation money) and runner up to the SS (the "fifth" tie breaker if another team gets two of the following: the US Open Cup winner, SS winner, or either team that makes it to the final), in addition to having a home game for at least the first two rounds of the playoff. And team #3 and #4 are guaranteed at least one home game through the playoffs on the weekend.

Anyhoo…

by SoundersForever on Sep 29, 2011 11:54 PM EDT reply actions  

create one table and top 6 teams duke it out in a 2 leg matchup up until the final...

and let me correct you about hockey, in the NHL nowadays, practically everyteam has a chance to make the playoffs. Once they’re in the playoffs, anything goes. The past 2 seasons playoff seeds have been settled on the very last game of the season. So no, I don’t agree with your point about how in hockey “not every game counts”. The points in October matter just as much as those on April.

As for basketball, you pretty much have the top 3 or 4 killer teams and then no other team has a chance to catch up to them. But thats the NBA, and thats why there will be no season…

by polishBLUE on Sep 30, 2011 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Cosmetic change would have cosmetic results.

I don’t buy that a change to an 8 team playoff (or 6 team, or 12 team) would result in much difference to fan passion. Passion is driven by a desire to be at the park, and is facilitated by the sense that you’re watching good soccer and getting a good entertainment value.

Bloggin' at JoePasDoghouse.com

by J.Schnauzer on Sep 30, 2011 11:13 AM EDT reply actions  

8 is good, 4 is better

The other element of the playoffs as currently structured: they’re boring. Way too many games between mediocre teams, while the best and brightest eliminate each other. 2010 was a shining example. If your hometown team is not in the playoffs a high-stakes game between the best of the best still matters. If only two see them all beat each other up.

Playoffs should be about spreading the gospel, not preaching to the choir. Ratings not attendance. For the soccer-curious, inclined to watch the playoffs only, the present set-up is moribund . If the 2010 MLS Cup was your entry drug, you’d be scared straight for life.

Narrow it to four. Below that, the tables are stacked with middling pretenders, strong openers in a tailspin, with sudden surges from the bottom feeders benefitting from that situation.

Must see TV: LA – SEA – KC – Philly

Channel surfing: RSL – Houston

Checking Facebook: Dallas – New York

Movie right: Columbus – Colorado

by pdublu on Oct 1, 2011 2:11 PM EDT reply actions  

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